Snark-Infested Waters by Mike Bailey

Snark-Infested Waters by Mike Bailey

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Archive for the ‘Fact-Check Theater’ Category

Fact-Check Theater: The Cape Cod Wastewater Authority – Revisited

Tuesday, May 8th, 2012

I’ve already addressed this thorny issue at length once, but now that Eric Steinhilber, candidate for the Barnstable County Board of County Commissioners, has launched a new campaign website that makes the proposed region-wide wastewater management entity a key issue, I found reason for a brief update.

Mr. Steinhilber makes two remarks about the proposal, the first of which is:

Eric says “NO MWRA for Cape Cod.” Eric will lead the charge against the creation of a Cape-Wide Regional Wastewater Authority, which would burden Cape residents with new taxes and huge water bill increases. Eric will seek the protection of our water resources through the enforcement of existing regulations and common-sense, cost-effective solutions.

The second one, listed under the header of “taxes,” says this:

Eric will fight to stop any and all attempts to impose new county taxes on the families, seniors, and businesses of Cape Cod. Eric will work to protect residents by stopping Cape-wide sewer project proposals, which alone, could cost each homeowner over $60,000 in new taxes.

My earlier post (linked above) addresses comment number one, so I’m going to focus here on comment number two, specifically Mr. Steinhilber’s claim that a Cape-wide sewering project “could cost each homeowner over $60,000 in new taxes.”

Mr. Steinhilber does not cite a source for this figure, which is much higher than other numbers quoted by county officials and consultants in recent months.

Robert Ciolek, an independent consultant working with the Cape Cod Water Protection Collaborative, reported last summer that the capital costs of region-wide sewering would range between $3.2 billion and $5.8 billion – a price range that does not take into consideration ongoing operating costs of $40 million to $68 million each year.

The capital costs alone break down to up to (repeat: up to) $27,000 per person, or $33,000 per property, Mr. Ciolek reported — at worst, a little more than half the amount Mr. Steinhilber quoted.

(However, this assumes that every single property owner on Cape Cod would pay into the capital costs, which Mr. Ciolek said is not the case. According to him, no more than half of all Cape residents – the region’s homeowners – would shoulder the financial burden. He also said that charging betterments on homeowners was not as equitable a system for funding such an infrastructure as through rates and fees for system users.)

So where does this $60,000 figure come from? Mr. Steinhilber appears to be misquoting a figure contained in the Cape Cod Wastewater Protection Collaborative’s April 2010 report comparing the costs of various wastewater management systems.

On page 27, there is a table comparing the various costs of a satellite wastewater management system, which is a system that serves  “from 30 to 1,000 homes (wastewater flows between 10,000 [gallons per day] and 300,000 gpd), intended to treat and dispose of wastewater from one area of a town.”

The estimated capital cost range for such a system is $46,000 to $60,000 — and this is the ONLY time that $60,000 number appears in that entire report.

CONCLUSION

Mr. Steinhilber has it wrong. His claim that “Cape-wide sewer project proposals…could cost each homeowner over $60,000 in new taxes” applies the quoted dollar figure for one type of wastewater management project to a different type. Based on existing analyses, the estimated per-property cost for a regional sewer system is at worst $33,000, while decentralized satellite systems would cost nearly twice as much: $60,000. Further, that amount would not be applied to “each homeowner,” but to fewer than half according to Mr. Ciolek — who does not endorse that funding method.

Fact-Check Theater: The Cape Cod Wastewater Authority

Wednesday, March 28th, 2012

It’s looking like we have our first hot-button issue of the year for the county-level campaigns: the Cape Cod Regional Wastewater Authority.

Various parties have emerged to roundly curse this proposal, and two candidates for the Barnstable County Board of County Commissioners — Ronald R. Beaty Jr. and Eric R. Steinhilber, both of Barnstable — have voiced their staunch opposition to the concept.

In a speech delivered at his recent campaign kick-off, Mr. Steinhilber said this:

“Is it the proper role of the County to create a massive new government authority, an MWRA for the Cape, to take over all aspects of our water and sewer systems when other environmentally sound, cost-effective solutions exist? Is it the proper role of the County or its newly created authority to have taxation powers to potentially impose billions in new taxes and fees on the already overtaxed, over worked people of Cape Cod?”

And Mr. Beaty has made several unfavorable public comments about the authority, most recently in an op-ed piece entitled “A Cape Cod regional sewer authority…or an idea that stinks of a power grab?”:

When considering the creation of an independent, taxpayer funded, unaccountable & bureaucratic Cape Cod Regional Wastewater Authority, along with its hugely expensive large scale centralized wastewater processing facilities, Cape Codders need to be honestly informed that these are not the only choices available to them and their respective municipalities.

So, just how badly is the Cape Cod Wastewater Authority going to screw taxpayers? How much of a bureaucratic nightmare is it going to be?

That’s a tough question to answer considering that the authority, despite Mr. Steinhilber’s claim, does not exist — and might never exist.

The “Cape Cod Wastewater Authority” entered the region’s consciousness during a series of meetings held between October 2011 and February 2012 by the Special Commission on County Governance, a 26-member group formed through a directive by the county commissioners. The group’s charge was to examine the current state of county government, in all aspects, and submit recommendations for how to improve county functions.

The final report, released last week and available online, lists wastewater as its second topic, and the formal recommendation is, in full:

Recommendation: We strongly and unanimously recommend that the Barnstable County Commissioners, working with the Cape Cod legislative delegation through an open and public process, seek special legislation establishing the Cape Cod Wastewater District. The Commissioners should charge the Executive Director of the Cape Cod Commission and the Executive Director of the Cape Cod Water Protection Collaborative with developing recommendations on the structure, powers, and funding mechanisms of the District.

The recommendation also comes with five additional points of recommended consideration. Among them: whether the district (not “authority”) should be separate, independent entity and not part of county government proper; and the development of “fair, broad-based funding mechanisms that take into account funds already invested by towns on infrastructure that could assist regional solutions.”

The county commissioners, at their February 29, well in advance of the official submission of the final report, heeded one part of the recommendation and charged Andrew Gottlieb and Paul J. Niedzwiecki, executive directors of, respectively, the Cape Cod Water Protection Collaborative and the Cape Cod Commission, with conducting a formal exploration of the concept.

To repeat: the commissioners approved exploring the concept; they did not approve the creation of a regional wastewater authority, and by extension, did not approve a formal administrative structure, a funding mechanism, or a plan to address wastewater needs on a regional basis — nor did they express support for any of these things.

Mary L. (Pat) Flynn, chairman of the county commissioners, very clearly said that any new entity would not be created with the snap of the commissioners’ collective fingers, stating:

“To make a decision to move forward, without any public discussion or without any public input on voting to recommend a regional plan that includes a taxing authority, at this time would not be very wise and I don’t think would show good leadership on our part.”

Mr. Gottlieb and Mr. Niedzwiecki told the commissioners that they would conduct a lengthy public process that would, maybe, yield a final recommendation from them by the end of 2012 — about the same time the two agencies expect to wrap up their work on a regional wastewater plan the two bodies have been working on “for a couple years now,” according to Mr. Niedzwiecki.

Many of the more controversial talking points being thrown about by opponents stem from elements of the debate within the special commission. At the special commission’s February 8 meeting, according to official meeting minutes, Mr. Gottlieb opined that:

A separate regional entity is needed to address wastewater issues, as individual town solutions would be less efficient, since estuaries are shared, and artificial town boundaries interfere and increase costs of addressing nitrogen‐loading. While inter‐municipal agreements could be possible, Mr. Gottlieb said they are seldom initiated, and the 15 towns have difference issues and funding resources that are not all equivalent. Elsewhere, he noted, wastewater facilities are regional, and the County role is needed here beyond the existing County structure.

Mr. Niedzwiecki chimed in on the funding issue, saying a “broad‐based funding source that would be fair to all” would be necessary to fund the operation of a regional entity, and that “in reviewing funding options, Mr. Niedzwiecki called betterments an inequitable and irresponsible approach, preferring the general tax levy as a better approach.”

In other words, instead of placing the burden on property owners through betterments, the cost would be spread across the region’s tax base so, in effect, all taxpayers would chip in.

At no point in the conversation was a recommendation made to have the entire region’s wastewater infrastructure tied into, as Mr. Beaty put it, “hugely expensive large scale centralized wastewater processing facilities.”

CONCLUSIONS

One fact is irrefutable: the Cape Cod Wastewater Authority/District does not exist. It has not been created, and based on the comments and plans outlined by various county officials, it will not exist at any point in 2012.

What form it will take in the end is at present a mystery. While it has been suggested — officially and on the record — that the authority be an independent entity run by an appointed board and funded by taxpayer money, all these are are suggestions — suggestions that are already being thoroughly scrutinized by skeptics, and will continue to be scrutinized as the county proceeds with its exploration of the concept. Nothing is a done deal.

Even if the “nightmare scenario” as presented by Mr. Beaty and Mr. Steinhilber of an autonomous, tax-funded entity that rules the Cape’s wastewater systems with an iron fist  is presented to residents, it will likely need legislation to become reality, possibly even a binding referendum question on the ballot, providing the public with additional opportunities to oppose the project if the final product is not to their liking.

Mr. Beaty and Mr. Steinhilber are turning the wastewater authority concept into their personal campaign boogeyman to scare voters, plying fears of costly taxpayer-funded government takeovers with no accountability in order to rally support. This may serve their respective immediate personal needs, but does Cape Codders no favors in the long run if they befuddle any attempts at honest debate.

Water quality management is perhaps one of the Cape’s most pressing issues, one that impacts individual towns and the region as a whole, and tackling this particular 800-pound gorilla requires thorough exploration, a healthy sense of skepticism from all parties, perhaps a few hard decisions, and most importantly, information based in fact, not fear.

Fact-Check Theater: Tom Keyes And Underemployment

Tuesday, March 20th, 2012

Welcome to a new semi-regular feature here at Snark-Infested Waters, where I will occasionally look into claims made by candidates for office.

My goal is not to make any given candidate look good or bad (so kindly save your accusations of bias) but to provide context for statements made over the course of the campaign year. I welcome comments that confirm or refute my findings, and if you hear a politician saying something that sounds a bit suspect, let me know at bailey@capenews.net.

To christen this feature, I’ll start with a comment made by Thomas F. Keyes, the Sandwich Republican running against Senate President Therese M. Murray (D – Plymouth), at his campaign kick-off event this past weekend. He took a slightly different tack when addressing the old stand-by issues of economic and job growth:

“The incumbent says things are going well because unemployment is at 6.8 percent.  That’s nothing to be proud of.  Unfortunately, that figure doesn’t account for all of the people who are underemployed.  These are individuals who have had to take a lesser job or a job out of their field to make ends meet.  Right now, Massachusetts has an underemployment rate of 8.9%.  Let me say that again – it is 8.9 percent.  We are the highest in the nation.  When you combine underemployed and unemployed we have an employment problem of 15.7 percent.”

First, let’s put the unemployment issue into context. On March 8, the Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development announced that as of January 2012, the unemployment rate in Massachusetts was 6.9 percent — slightly higher than the figure Mr. Keyes quoted, but that number has not changed from December 2011 and is the lowest rate since December 2008.

Combine that with the fact the national unemployment rate is currently 8.3 percent, and that Massachusetts is tied for the 16th lowest unemployment rate in the country, things look decent for Massachusetts — decent, but not fantastic.

Now we move on the the “underemployment” claim, and first we need to distinguish between the two definitions of “underemployment” in play here.

The figure Mr. Keyes quoted was from a New Jobs for Massachusetts/Chmura Economics and Analytics study from December 2011, which looked at workers’ potential based on their education and training and compares it to their employment status; a person working one or more level below his level of qualification is considered underemployed.

To provide a simplistic example: if a man with a master’s degree in his chosen field is working a job that only requires a bachelor’s degree, he is underemployed.

The report “does not reflect workers who could be considered underemployed because their salary has dropped more than 30% from its peak, or because they are supervising half or fewer of the people they used to supervise.” In other words, New Jobs for Massachusetts places more weight on what a worker could be doing based on their qualifications rather than their income.

Or the number of hours worked, and that is how the federal government defines underemployment. The US Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics defines underemployed Americans as people willing and able to work full-time but who work part-time for economic reasons (e.g., they had their hours cut or cannot find full-time work).

For the sake of comparison, we’ll look at the DoL’s “U-6″ standard for measuring unemployment, which includes the unemployed, the underemployed (as per its definition), and all “marginally attached workers,” a category that includes “discouraged workers”.

(Both marginally attached and discouraged workers are defined as people able and willing to work, and who have looked for a job within the preceding 12 months of the data collection but not within the preceding four weeks. The difference is that discouraged workers stopped looking for work specifically because they do not believe there is work available, while marginally attached workers cite any reason for giving up on their job hunting — a fine distinction that is not wholly relevant to this analysis, but is mentioned for sake of presenting complete information.)

According to the DoL, Nevada actually has the highest total unemployment/underemployment rate at 22.7 percent. Massachusetts’ unemployment/underemployment rate as per the U-6 measure is 14.3 percent, which ties it for 33rd place with New York — again, decent but not spectacular, but below Mr. Keyes’ quoted total “unemployment problem” of 15.7 percent.

A recent Gallup poll more closely matches the DoL’s definition for underemployed; Gallup considers someone underemployed if they were totally jobless or were working fewer than 30 hours a week but wanted to work full-time. Based on that criteria, Gallup claimed the national average underemployment rate for 2011 was 18 to 20.9 percent. Massachusetts’ underemployment rate was 15 to 17.9 percent, placing it in the low end of Gallup’s “average” range — a downgrade from 2010, when Massachusetts recorded a below-average underemployment rate.

Once again, by this yardstick Massachusetts is doing fairly well, but not great.

Mr. Keyes’ statement paints a grimmer picture than Sen. Murray’s, which is not surprising since he’s trying to portray the incumbent as ineffectual on job growth and thus bolster his own image, but is his measure a more accurate picture of the state’s job situation?

This depends entirely on whether you regard underemployment as a reflection of one’s job status in terms of full-time versus part-time, as per the DoL and Gallup, or in terms of qualified for A-list work but stuck in a B-list (or lower) job.

Either way, it could be reasonably inferred that an underemployed individual is making less than his full earning potential, and in a worst-case scenario, that means an individual is relying on some form of public assistance and not contributing as much to the very same tax base that supports such programs.

CONCLUSIONS

Massachusetts is faring well in a national context and certainly could be doing worse, but it could also be doing better. Economic recovery in the state is still very much a work-in-progress, but historical employment data is showing a steady, long-term trend toward reducing unemployment. We’re on the right track, certainly.

All three studies cited here are valid measures of underemployment, but they share a similar flaw: they do not go into detail about the economics of underemployment. There is no mention of how working below one’s capacity, whether that is measured in hours or credentials, affects one’s income, which plays into any number of related issues. How many underemployed people are resorting to public assistance to make ends meet? How many are able to pay their expenses but cannot indulge in discretionary spending? How many have been forced to simply adopt a less extravagant but perfectly adequate lifestyle? These are questions that deserve answers.

Mr. Keyes brings much-needed attention to the issue of the underemployed. Adding that data to the mix provides a more textured perspective on the state’s and the nation’s job market and efforts in job creation, but Mr. Keyes chose to present numbers that put Massachusetts — and by extension his opponent — in a worse light; two other valid measures indicate that Massachusetts is not as bad off as New Jobs for Massachusetts says it is.

If Mr. Keyes wishes to have an honest discussion about underemployment, he should consider multiple sources of data rather than just those with an immediate political benefit — and should he win the race and find himself in a position to address the issue, he will need to have a complete picture before him if he is going to find the best remedy. It’s in his best political interests and, potentially, the best interests of his constituents to look at all the data.

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