So, here we are. For the next several hours, voters will hit the polls (hopefully in appreciable numbers), and then this evening we all play the waiting game to see who won, who lost, and who will be dragging this mess out for several more weeks with recounts and court challenges.

Around here the big race is, of course, for US Representative of the 10th Congressional District. Who will win? I honestly can’t make a call, but here’s one scenario to consider: moderate and left-leaning unenrolled voters look at Bill Keating and see a guy who more or less represents their own stances on the issues, but has disenchanted voters with his relentlessly negative campaign (and maybe the fact he moved into the district specifically to run for this seat).

Does this drive them all to State Representative Jeffrey D. Perry (R – Sandwich)? Not necessarily. Many are unsatisfied with the answers he’s given to his various controversies, and besides, his very conservative views don’t jibe with voters’ opinions, so the liberally inclined and some of the moderates float over to MaryAnne Lewis, who is close to their own political viewpoints and has run a clean campaign.

The result? Perry has the Republican block sewed up, Keating likewise with the Democrats, but Lewis steals unenrolled voters away from Keating, allowing Perry to score a victory — not a landslide or even a “clear voter mandate” win, but enough of a victory to prevent Keating from challenging the outcome.

The there’s the governor’s race, and my hunch is that we’ve got four more years of Deval Patrick ahead of us, and I say this as a guy who, for most of Patrick’s administration, was ready to dump the guy.

I want to say Charlie Baker will pull off a win, because I’m cool with the idea of a fiscally conservative/socially moderate Republican in the Corner Office to balance what I’m sure will remain a Democrat-controlled State House, but Baker just never lived up to my expectations. His campaign never felt like it hit high gear, his ideas (which were decent, if not especially noteworthy) got buried under all the sniping between him and Patrick, and — like it or not — the state has shown positive steps forward in terms of economic recovery over the past several months.

There’s still a ton of work to do to get the state back on its feet, but it’s heading in the right direction, slowly but surely, and I personally am disinclined to switch horses midstream.

There are a few races I’d qualify as slam-dunks for the incumbents: I fully expect Senate President Therese M. Murray (D – Plymouth), State Representative Susan D. Williams Gifford (R – Wareham), AG Martha Coakley, and Secretary of the Commonwealth William Galvin to all be returned to office by wide margins.

Not only did the audience refrain from hooting, hollering, cheering, and jeering, but the candidates themselves were completely civil – and by “candidates” I mean State Representative Jeffrey D. Perry (R – Sandwich) and Democrat William R. Keating, who have sniped at each other almost relentlessly since the primary race wrapped.

I won’t go so far as to declare any kind of winner, but Mr. Keating, Rep. Perry, and unenrolled candidate MaryAnne Lewis came across as solid candidates. Perry especially stayed on-topic and always answered the questions as posed to the panel, but Keating and Lewis came across as well-informed and were able to articulate their thoughts.

Then there was unenrolled candidates James A. Sheets and Joseph van Nes. Sheets seemed to spend as much time taking potshots at the Democrats as he did discussing the issues. Several times during the evening they went badly off-topic and often failed to directly answer questions, and at times van Nes’s lack of knowledge on a given topic was glaring.

***

Another note on the Congressional race: a WGBH poll of 400 voters showed that Rep. Perry held a narrow one-point lead over Mr. Keating – 41 percent support to 40 percent – but when voters who are still waffling were asked who they were leaned toward, Keating pulled ahead and took a three-point lead over Perry (46 percent to 43 percent).

On the fundraising front, Mr. Keating is closing in on the $1 million mark, much of that money coming from unions, while Rep. Perry has raised more than $800,000. Ms. Lewis has raised about $57,000, Mr. Sheets has raised about $8,500 according to unofficial sources (he failed to file a report with the Federal Election Commission by the most recent deadline), and Mr. van Nes has not raised enough money to warrant filing a report.

***

When Charles D. Baker Jr. first hit the scene, there was an air of promise around this fiscally conservative but socially moderate candidate. Governor Deval L. Patrick was not faring well in the court of public opinion and was a prime target for a well-coordinated, focused campaign from the former high muckety-muck of Harvard Pilgrim Healthcare.

Over the summer and into the fall Mr. Baker made slow but steady progress on Gov. Patrick, and every month the voter polls showed the Republican challenger was gaining ground on the incumbent. Now the governor appears to be pulling away again.

The latest Suffolk University/WHDH-TV poll of 500 voters revealed that Gov. Patrick was the preferred candidate, receiving 46 percent support to Mr. Baker’s 39 percent. Baker’s numbers are up five points from the September poll, but so are Gov. Patrick’s.

Dr. Jill E. Stein has lost what little support she had; last month four percent of voters backed her, now she’s down to one percent. Two percent of voters have made up their minds, leaving the “undecided” category.

And, not surprisingly, some of those voters came from Timothy P. Cahill’s base; his support dropped four points from September, to 10 percent.

While several voters said they would vote for Baker if Cahill were to vanish from the ballot, one in four said the whole debacle between Baker and Cahill involving turncoat running mate Paul Loscocco and several staffers who may or may not have been GOP moles, is driving them to the Patrick camp.

***

James H. Crocker Jr. is back on the campaign trail after helping his family deal with the loss of his in-laws.

Mr. Crocker, the Republican candidate for State Senator of the Cape and Islands District, briefly suspended his campaign last week after his in-laws were killed in a car crash.

His opponent, Democrat Daniel A. Wolf, gracefully limited his own campaign work during that period out of respect for Mr. Crocker instead of pouncing on the opportunity to glom all the attention for himself.

***

Patricia L. Mosca of Bourne, the lone woman in the Democratic primary race for governor’s councilor of the first district, is back to try again. She has announced she will be challenging the brothers Cipollini – Democrat Oliver and Republican Charles – as a write-in candidate.

I normally am not a write-in candidate fan, but considering that this is such a non-race – Charles has said quite clearly he wants his brother to win – I applaud Ms. Mosca for wanting to make Oliver C. actually work for this gig.

***

And now for the endorsement lightning round!

Thomas F. Reilly, the state’s former attorney general, has jumped party lines to endorse Mr. Baker for governor (delayed revenge for Gov. Patrick trouncing him in the 2006 primary?).

Congressman William D. Delahunt (D) has endorsed State Representative Matthew C. Patrick (D – Falmouth) in his re-election bid.

Rep. Perry was endorsed by the US Chamber of Commerce and the National Federation of Independent Business.

F. Randal Hunt, Republican candidate for State Representative of the Fifth Barnstable District, received an endorsement from Citizens for Limited Taxation.

***

This week’s event reminders:

The Committee to Elect Therese Murray and Olive and Dave Chase are hosting a fundraiser this evening for Senate President Therese M. Murray (D – Plymouth) at the Sandwich Glass Museum from 6 to 7:30 PM. Suggested donation for both events is $50 per person.

Mr. Hunt is holding his final campaign fundraiser tomorrow at the East Sandwich Grange Hall. The Tony Lujan Quintet will perform.

Lance W. Lambros, Democratic candidate for State Representative of the Fifth Barnstable District, will be holding a (not quite) Halloween  meet-and-greet at the Grundman household on Wing Boulevard East in Sandwich. That’s happening tomorrow from 5 to 7:30 PM.

Desperados in Mashpee will on Monday hold a “meet the candidates” night from 5 to 7 PM. That will feature candidates for the Legislature who represent Mashpee.

James M. Cummings, Barnstable County Sheriff, is hosting a fundraiser for Rep. Perry on Wednesday. That’s at the Hyannis Conference Center from 5 to 7 PM.

Political news and announcements may be sent to Michael Bailey, Region editor and senior political reporter, at bailey@capenews.net

Things are getting seriously ugly between Democrat/Norfolk County DA William R. Keating and State Representative Jeffrey D. Perry (R – Sandwich), and that’s saying something considering the tone of this race from the get-go was far from cordial.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently unveiled an attack ad that strips down (and in the process, slightly sensationalizes) the Scott Flanagan/Wareham PD scandal. The Massachusetts Democratic party has also launched a “fact-based” anti-Perry website called “The Perry Files,” which links to a ton of media stories about Rep. Perry’s various controversies.

Meanwhile the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee launched a new website, “Bill Keating – Just the Facts,” a blog-style site that picks apart Keating’s political career, and boy, what timing! That launched just as news broke that Mr. Keating was accepting campaign donations from a defense attorney on the other side of a case Mr. Keating’s office is prosecuting.

Keating is dismissing this as no big deal, attorneys donate to him all the time, but the GOP is calling this a conflict of interests.

Then there is the startling new wrinkle in the form of a new endorsement for Rep. Perry from Thomas Joyce, who was the chief of the Wareham Police Department during the Flanagan scandal – a man who has completely avoided the media (and continues to do so) to discuss the matter.

Why he has emerged from hiding has not been revealed, but his endorsement has only served to embolden the converted and provide the Keating folks with more ammo; recent e-mails from the Keating campaign gleefully point out that the former chief was himself a co-defendant in the court cases resulting from the Flanagan incidents.

This is tiresome, guys. Really. This negativity is making both candidates look like a word I can’t print here in a family newspaper.

***

Now, here’s a surprising and related bit of news: last week the five Congressional candidates met in Plymouth and debated (read: Perry and Keating sniped at each other), and the candidate who came out on top in a subsequent straw poll was unenrolled candidate MaryAnne Lewis.

WATD, which sponsored the event, held the poll following a Friday rebroadcast of the debate, and Ms. Lewis – who, as you might have noticed, is profiled this week – came out on top with a whopping 76 percent support. Rep. Perry came in second (16 percent) and Mr. Keating (eight percent).

Ms. Lewis apparently scored major points when, at last Thursday’s debate, she remarked to the two party candidates that people were sick of listening to them slap each other around (I know I am). Whether she can successfully parlay voter irritation at both the current status quo and at Perry and Keating’s carping has yet to be seen, but she has become a much more interesting and potentially dangerous candidate.

***

Back to Scandalville and its growing population. Suzanne M. Bump, Democratic candidate for auditor, is defending (read: rationalizing) her decision to claim two big tax breaks in Great Barrington, which she calls home, and in Boston where she owns a condo.

Ms. Bump — a lawyer, mind you — insisted she was not doing anything illegal, but the Massachusetts Department of Revenue begged to differ: the DOR said residents cannot claim two primary residences in Massachusetts to get two sets of property tax breaks.

Despite her adamant belief she was getting the tax breaks legally, she last week ponied up $5,875 to reimburse the City of Boston for the taxes she didn’t pay. The city then reviewed the situation and confirmed that yes, she was not entitled to both perks.

And this is the woman who wants to be the person who ensures our tax money is used properly. Lovely.

***

From the world of weird endorsements: James A. Sheets, one of the three unenrolled candidates for Congress, recently announced that he’d received an endorsement from Peter Boylston Adams, a descendant of President John Quincy Adams.

And that’s all he’s got: he’s related to someone famous and influential in shaping the United States. Whoop-de-do.

***

And now, a nice endorsement: for Daniel A. Wolf, Democratic candidate for State Senator of the Cape and Islands District, from environmental groups the Sierra Club and Clean Water Action.

***

On Friday, October 29 starting at 6 PM, there will be a multi-candidate Republican rally at the Hemisphere Restaurant in Sandwich. On the roster of attendees: Rep. Perry; Thomas F. Keyes, Republican candidate for State Senator of the Plymouth and Barnstable District; F. Randal Hunt, Republican candidate for State Representative for the Fifth Barnstable District; Michael D. O’Keefe, the Cape and Islands’ district attorney (who is unopposed this year); and James Killion, who is running for the Barnstable County Assembly of Delegates.

***

This week’s event reminders:

Rep. Perry is the guest of honor at a reception at the Flying Bridge in Falmouth on Sunday. That runs from 5 to 7 PM.

That same day Mr. Keyes will hold a fundraiser at the Aqua Grille in Sandwich beginning at 4 PM.

Next Friday, October 22, the Committee to Elect Therese Murray and Olive and Dave Chase will host a fundraiser for Senate President Therese M. Murray (D – Plymouth) at the Sandwich Glass Museum from 6 to 7:30 PM. Suggested donation for both events is $50 per person.

Mr. Hunt is holding his final campaign fundraiser on Saturday, October 23 at the East Sandwich Grange Hall. The Tony Lujan Quintet will perform.

Political news and announcements may be sent to Michael Bailey, Region editor and senior political reporter, at bailey@capenews.net