Green Pond, Bournes Pond, and Eel Pond in East Falmouth

A week after a day-long symposium on the potential for outfall pipes to handle the Cape’s wastewater problem, I’ve finally figured out what’s been bothering me.

It seems that wastewater managers and engineers, in their infinite wisdom, operate according to the “if it can be complicated, why make it simple?” ethic.

The speakers at the ocean outfall forum did not mince words: it would take no less than an amendment to three state acts protecting marine resources—not to mention, years of study and millions of dollars— for an outfall pipe to be constructed on these shores.

They were less candid about the probable impacts on the environment— and were subtle about the whole reason for entertaining the idea of an ocean outfall: it’s cheaper than the only other “approved” method of disposing of wastewater.

Having attended my fair share of conferences, symposia, summits, and forums on wastewater, it seems that there are two distinct schools of thought on the issue. Some play by the rules, insisting there is no way to serve an entire municipality with anything other than sewers and wastewater treatment plants. Others push for “alternatives” such as composting toilets and shellfish aquaculture— options that seem outside the box until you realize that’s the way humans have been disposing of their “waste” for millenia.

An important difference between these two schools of thought is the attention and resources given to the “big pipe” option, while grassroots groups are left to their own devices to promote eco-toilets or aquaculture. Kudos to the Falmouth wastewater committee (CWMP-RC for short!) for opening their minds and supporting a successful town meeting article to give sewering alternatives adequate study— while the taxpayer-funded report by the engineering firm Stearns & Wheler did not.

Known unknowns

An ocean outfall off of New Jersey (courtesy World News Network)

Popular in places where sanitation services are lacking, outfall pipes have fallen out of favor around the globe. Speaking on “possible environmental impacts,” Batelle scientist Carlton Hunt pointed out that the effects of putting semi-treated wastewater into our precious ocean are pretty much unknown.

Think about what products you use in the shower, the kitchen, the laundry room. Would you want to swim in it or eat it later on the half shell? What about road runoff that flows into storm drains?

Dr. Hunt also pointed out the anti-microbial nanotechnology that is appearing in everything from hand sanitizers to socks. David Dow, of the Cape & Islands Sierra Club chapter, pointed out that the byproducts of pharmaceuticals and personal care products are known to cause reproductive problems in fresh-water fish and amphibians. Studies have shown these contaminants of emerging concern in most of the country’s drinking water supply. What will they do in the ocean? We simply don’t know.

We also don’t really know what pumping precious drinking water into our toilets and sinks, and back across town for treatment will do to the water table— or to our municipal energy bills. We may not be water-poor on Cape Cod, but as the Dr. Hunt pointed out, we don’t know what to expect with climate change. Is it wise to build energy-intensive infrastructure in this age of sea level rise and uncertain weather patterns? How many more wind turbines will we need to handle the additional energy demand? (and how will nearby residents feel about that?!)

A truly holistic approach

Nate Weeks of Stearns & Wheler-GHD, with Dale Saad of the Barnstable DPW and Paul Niedzwiecki of the Cape Cod Commission.

There are essentially two reasons for considering an ocean outfall: the wastewater need not be treated to a point where it’s basically drinkable (through reverse osmosis)and town-owned land resources for groundwater discharge are dwindling.  Finding a suitable discharge site is complicated by the need to avoid putting nutrients back into the ground, which would require sewering the discharge area.

All these problems add up to one thing: groundwater discharge will be expensive.

One of the main messages from the panelists is that we need a “holistic approach” to solving our wastewater problem.

For hydrologists, that means recharging the treated wastewater into the groundwater or for irrigation. For Paul Niedzwiecki, director of the Cape Cod Commission, “holistic” means we need to collaborate as a region, rather than as individual towns. For Nate Weeks, of Stearns & Wheler-GHD, the term means we need to consider all the big-pipe options, no matter the regulatory obstacle course. For residents advocating for eco-toilets, aquaculture, and inlet widening, the answer lies in using our unused nutrients as compost and fish food, removing the “waste” from the wastewater equation.

It could be that being truly holistic means trying all these approaches, but in the end, decisions will have to be made. Why not make it simple, if we can avoid the complications?

What some may consider a pie-in-the-sky scenario is becoming closer to reality, as the Department of Environmental Protection develops a zero waste policy goal for the future.
With skyrocketing solid waste disposal costs and the toxic emissions from landfills and trash incinerators contributing to climate change, the concept of zero waste is being embraced as a realistic, common-sense solution to a number environmental and social ills.

Lynne Pledger, of Clean Water Action and Don't Waste Massachusetts

While it may not be possible to completely eliminate all waste, Lynne Pledger, the solid waste director of Clean Water Action, outlined the steps for getting closer.

“Zero waste is like the North Star. You don’t have to get there, just use it as a guide,” Ms. Pledger said in a forum organized by the Falmouth Climate Action Team, the Falmouth Solid Waste Advisory Committee, and the Cape and Islands chapter of the Sierra Club.

Not only does waste represent inefficiency in society, it is a major contributor to climate change, emitting potent greenhouse gases (methane and CO2) and toxins from landfills and incinerators, Ms. Pledger said.

Throwing things away instead of reusing them also means more natural resources are consumed, destroying ecosystems and habitats in the process.

For example, the bauxite needed to produce aluminum cans has ravaged parts of Jamaica, Iceland, Guinea, Australia, and India— a process that also requires 20 times the amount of energy as recycling aluminum.

The 3 R’s

The mantra of the waste disposal hierarchy—reduce, reuse, recycle—rings true in achieving zero waste, said Ms. Pledger.

By reusing shopping bags to composting, people are already taking steps to reduce their household garbage.

But in order to get to zero waste  municipalities and manufacturers will also have to step up their efforts.

The DEP’s Pathway to Zero Waste solid waste master plan for 2010-2020:

According to the DEP,  recycling, reuse, and remanufacturing:

To cut the state’s garbage in half, commercial-scale composting facilities or anaerobic digesters will be needed in every region to handle food scraps from residences and businesses, Ms. Pledger said.

In the 125 municipalities nationwide that offer curbside composting along with recycling and trash disposal, she said trash collection has decreased to twice a month, offsetting costs.

A pay-as-you-throw program for curbside trash collection has also proven to reduce solid waste tonnage, Ms. Pledger added.

Setting a nationwide example, San Francisco instituted a mandatory recycling and composting program last year, a huge gain in achieving its goal of zero waste by 2020.

Boston and San Francisco are similar in size and demographics, Ms. Pledger pointed out, but currently San Francisco diverts 75 percent of its solid waste, while Boston diverts only 13 percent.

“The difference is political will,” she said.

Think globally, act locally

Taking steps toward zero waste represents an opportunity for Falmouth to increase “green tourism” while also saving money and protecting the environment, Ms. Pledger said.

Local boards of health have the authority to determine what can be handled at a transfer station, she said— meaning that the board could decide to ban recyclable goods and organic materials from the Upper Cape Regional Transfer Station.

Falmouth DPW Director Ray Jack has gone on the record in support of regionalizing solid waste services, another of the DEP’s solid waste guidelines. He has also expressed support for mandatory recycling program and a materials reclamation center on Cape Cod.
As the Cape’s contracts with the SEMASS waste-to-energy incinerator near expiration (2015 in Falmouth) and the Bourne landfill, well, fills, this forward-thinking step could reduce our solid waste disposal costs significantly—meanwhile creating a market for used (but still perfectly useful) construction and art materials.
A reclamation facility similar to Urban Ore in San Francisco would create a market for builders who want cheaper or more unique building materials, and could also be expanded to take in household goods, clothing, and other useful materials, similar to the Falmouth Waste Management Facility’s popular Swap Shop.

The EPR model

-Product Policy Institute

EPR is just one way of incorporating societal costs into consumer products.

They came to learn advanced satellite imaging techniques, and left at the end of September with maps that will help their countries manage their forests and take part in a potential global carbon credit trading system.

The pan-(bio)mass challenge

The WHRC is leading an effort to create the first pan-tropical biomass map that will demonstrate the future effects of deforestation and land use change across the globe. This information is key in developing the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) policy initiative being negotiated under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Mukund Srivastava (left), of the Indian Forest Survey, works with Tina Courmier of the Woods Hole Research Center and Abel Siample of the Zambia Forestry Department, to develop a map that shows the land use and carbon-sequestration capacity of India.

Under the REDD system, countries like the United States that emit a large amount of greenhouse gas could purchase carbon credits from countries like Gabon that have a lot of forest, but need cash to continue to protect it.

The system is also designed to encourage countries like Kenya to build up its forests, reversing the trend of deforestation that threatens to increase not only global carbon emissions, but also the ability of its citizens to grow food and find safe drinking water.

Using the maps, governments and tropical forest stakeholders will be able to monitor and track changes to land cover, helping inform policy decisions, said Joseph Kellndorfer, a WHRC scientist co-leading the pan-tropical mapping effort.

Tropical deforestation is estimated to be the cause of about 17 percent of man-made global carbon emissions, which makes it an easy target for combating climate change, said Dr. Kellndorfer.

“These maps give us a first estimate of what we’re talking about trading,” he said.

As the scholars taking part in the workshop indicated, deforestation is caused by a variety of factors. While logging is an obvious source, agricultural expansion—exacerbated by population pressures and a turn to the cultivation of cash crops—is also taking a major toll on tropical forests across Africa and Southeast Asia.

In Colombia, a decades-long guerilla war is having an impact even in remote forests; in Bolivia, hydroelectric projects threaten to flood the lush jungle of the Amazon basin.

The forest for the trees

Poverty is the number one barrier to forest conservation, said Edward Ssenyonjo, a remote sensing specialist with the Ugandan National Forest Authority. “More than 80 percent of people depend on the natural environment, mainly forests, to survive. This is compounded by a population growth [rate] of 3.2 percent,” he said.

His colleague, Abel Siample, of the Zambia Forestry Department, said that investment in alternatives to charcoal production and agricultural expansion are the only way to stop encroachment in protected forests.

Joint forest management committees in Zambia and India are giving disenfranchised people a say in how REDD funds are distributed, said Mukund Srivastava, of the Indian Forest Survey.

With a structure based on equality for women and the rural poor, these committees are developing a model so that a portion of REDD revenue returns to the community to attract tourism or sustainable industries and build up infrastructure.

People realize it when they hit the wall, and there is no more forest, but they cannot stop without alternatives. It’s a human dilemma: we do not change our behavior until it becomes too late.

-Nadine Laporte, associate scientist

However, said WHRC associate scientist Nadine Laporte, throwing money at the problem is not a sure way to protect diminishing forests. Sensitive to the socio-economic hardships that people in developing countries face, she is working with the scholars to find solutions to deforestation while meeting the needs of impoverished people.

“In Africa, deforestation is done by people who are trying to feed their families,” said Dr. Laporte, pointing out that people are driven to cut down the forest in a quest to find wood for cooking and heating.

Think global, act local

Peter Ndunda, of the Green Belt Movement, and WHRC Associate Scientist Nadine Laporte go over Peter's map of Kenya

Although REDD was not adopted by the UNFCCC Conference of Parties that met in Copenhagen last December, Dr. Laporte said it is only a matter of time before a global carbon-trading system is in place.

Already, there are several bilateral agreements in place between developing nations and high carbon-emitting countries and states. Progress on REDD achieved in Copenhagen will continue at the next COP meeting in Cancun, Mexico, starting in late November.

Shifting the focus of international climate talks to helping communities and developing nations solve their own problems, the field survey sessions that Dr. Laporte and her colleagues take part in reach some of the most rural or forested areas in the world.

Community capacity-building is the name of the game for Peter Ndunda, a GIS specialist with the Kenyan Green Belt Movement (GBM), a non-governmental organization founded by Nobel Peace Prize winner Wangari Maathai.

By building up tree nurseries and embarking on a nationwide tree planting campaign, the GBM has been able to stem the trend of deforestation in part of Kenya. In addition, GBM offers civic and environmental education programs that help people understand how forests help retain soil and water, thereby supporting food production and safe drinking water.

A map of Kenya's forest cover shows the GBM's progress, but huge areas in the east remain deforested.

While GBM has made great strides in the last 20 years, the biomass map Mr. Ndunda created at WHRC shows how much further the country has to go.

Indeed, great swaths of Kenya were colored in brown on his map, indicating low forest cover; while the green areas where GBM is active nonetheless indicate that human activity has spilled over the boundaries of designated conservation areas.

“How do you help communities increase their yields without compromising future generations?” Mr. Ndunda asked.

With additional income from REDD, communities will have the time to wait for the trees to grow, while also improving their farmland, he said.

“REDD provides a great opportunity to help resolve the global challenge of poverty. This is a huge economic and ecological benefit that we cannot quantify.”

If you teach a man to map…

Nguyen Hanh Quyenv, of the Vietnamese Academy of Science and Technology, works on a biomass map that she says will help her country develop forest conservation policies

Some of the scholars taking part in the WHRC workshop were able to create a map of the forest cover as well as the biomass capacity of their country.

Using readily-downloadable data from free sources like Google Earth–as well as sophisticated software and the 160 processing systems owned by the WHRC– the scholars were able to create forest-cover maps of their entire country with a 15-meter resolution, and biomass maps with 500 meters resolution.

Another benefit offered through the WHRC program is the use of satellite radar imaging, a powerful tool that can penetrate the cloud cover that tends to persist over tropical forests, Dr. Kellndorfer said.

That way, forest managers will have more accurate “snapshots” of a forest region, without gaps in data due to cloud cover.

That was a difficulty for Edersson Cabrera, a remote sensing expert with the Colombian ministry of the environment. Though he has been collecting data on the country’s diverse range of forests for the past two decades, thick cloud cover in some years led to gaps in knowledge about how land use had changed over time.

Eric Armijo, of the Friends of Nature Foundation in Bolivia, said the maps he is working on with the WHRC will give his organization the tools it needs to make sure conservation policies are in place— and working.

“It’s a powerful way of pushing the decision-makers,” he said.

High tide flooding covers Menauhant Road

I would like to know why, in all the discussion on the half-billion dollar sewer project, there has been not one word on global warming and sea level rise. There is no question that the sea level is rising, and this century it is likely to rise sufficiently to make the health of the coastal ponds a moot question. …  It seems to me that spending that much money to protect ponds that will soon enough be part of the Atlantic is a huge waste of resources.

Prepare for the Worst, Hope for the Best

Ric brings up an interesting point that is not often considered in the great sewering debate that Falmouth and other coastal towns are engaging in these days. Then again, very little planning is being done with climate change and sea level rise in mind in this country.

In a shift from that trend, the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management (CZM) is taking an active role in planning for changes to the coastline, by mapping the seafloor and making recommendations for how to mitigate impacts. They’re working on legislation so that towns have clear guidelines for what to do, should buildings and beaches start to disappear into the ocean, or should get-rich-quick contractors attempt to build in vulnerable coastal zones.

Regarding building public infrastructure such as sewer pipes and roads, the CZM posted these guidelines:

• Roads and utilities are absolutely critical during evacuation, disaster response, and recovery. If they’re flooded or damaged, they can become yet another liability, rather than an asset.
• Placing public infrastructure in areas where it may be damaged makes it extremely likely that your community will end up repairing it—an added strain to municipal staff, budgets, and available services.
• Putting public infrastructure (e.g., water and sewer) in a hazard-prone area increases the likelihood that the area will be developed, or that existing development will be expanded, thereby putting more structures and people at risk.

In Chatham, a local bylaw prevented new construction of a house in a floodplain, a landmark decision upheld by the MA Supreme Court. One of the prohibited uses of the land in these Flood Hazard Zones is the discharge of sewage. In a model bylaw developed by the Cape Cod Commission, towns would be able to repair or replace their existing sewer and water mains, but not build new ones in high-risk flood zones  “in order to avoid impairment of or contamination from them during flooding.”

Regulating catastrophe?

Despite these regulatory strides, Ric’s question brings up an important point about long-term planning for climate change on Cape Cod, which includes planning for a region-wide sewer system.

It strikes me that the egos and possibly greed of town officials are leading people astray. To refuse to address this question, based on the best science available, is arrogant, short-sighted, and ultimately just plain stupid. It’s not improbable that by the end of the century, if not considerably sooner, that Falmouth Plaza will be the new Falmouth Heights Beach. Perhaps money might be better spent protecting the fresh water supply from salt incursion, though in time that will also be moot.

-Ric Gerace, Falmouth

As I’ve reported in the Enterprise, sea level rise is already a reality on Cape Cod, although occuring at a miniscule rate of 3 millimeters per year. That amount is expected to accelerate as the polar ice caps melt. A very conservative– yet widely accepted–projection from the IPCC of a 2-11 °F increase in average global temperatures would cause an average one meter (3 foot) rise in sea level.

Again, that might not sound like much, but with storm surges, high tides, and erosion over time, Main Street, Falmouth (as we know it), will be waterfront property. Ric’s prediction that Staples will be the next Falmouth Heights Beach may not be too far from the truth. (Click here for an excellent PowerPoint presentation on the issue from Falmouth resident and USGS researcher, Rob Thieler.)

Long Term Gain for Short Term Pain

In 2003, the Coastal Resources Working Group completed a report to Falmouth selectmen on how to deal with the threat of sea level rise. In order to prevent an apocalyptic, beach-less town by 2100, the group made the following recommendations (among others):

• Beaches and dunes will be wide enough for protection from storms and for public access and use.
• Water quality, habitat and fisheries resources of the coastal zone, estuaries, ponds and marshes will be sustained and enhanced.
• A minimum of hard structures (e.g., groins, seawalls, jetties, etc.) will be found in the coastal zone, to reduce
  maintenance costs, allow natural sediment transport, and for ease and safety of public use; adverse impacts of their presence will be mitigated by passive and active management approaches.
• Public infrastructure will be relocated from the immediate coast to reduce maintenance and repair costs and to reduce its impact on the coastal system.

These recommendations contain two important aspects of the issue that Ric brought up: protection of water quality for the health of marine life, and the costs of building and maintaining public infrastructure in flood zones.  They needn’t be mutually exclusive goals, however.  With proper planning, the main sewer line (if that is what happens) should be located well beyond the reach of the flood zone. By restoring the estuarine ecosystem, especially south of Route 28, where nitrogen pollution is most severe, nature’s defenses against erosion will be able to do their job. Eel grass and dune grass are essential for keeping sand and sediment in place. Natural migration of sand (which is rapidly moving eastward in Falmouth) will protect the coastline from erosion and sea level rise.

From there, yes, it would be a matter of time before the residences that connect to the sewer main are compromised by rising water levels. But that will likely take centuries. We may not be able to stop global climate change, but at least we can do something now to restore the local marine ecosystem.

According to scientists at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 30% of the world’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, known to be a leading cause of global warming, are being absorbed by the ocean. Small coincidence that over the past 50 years of global  industrialization, rising CO2 emissions have also led to a 30% increase in the average acidity of ocean surface water.

This phenomenon is just starting to attract the attention– and alarm– of policymakers and the shellfish industry.  I talked to Scott Doney and Sarah Cooley at WHOI to find out why.

How does ocean acidification happen?

When CO2 in the atmosphere combines with seawater (H2O), the molecules combine to form carbonic acid (H2CO3). This acid is weak and dissociates rapidly in basic seawater, releasing hydrogen ions. When these ions combine with the carbonate ions already present in the water to form bicarbonate, they rob coral and shellfish of the materials they need to grow their shells and skeletons.

Scientists estimate that the pH of seawater has decreased by about 0.1 units– a 30 % decline on the logarithmic pH scale– and could decline by 0.3-0.5 units more in the next 100 years, as CO2 levels rise. Over time, they warn, the ocean’s ability to absorb CO2 could diminish the development of coral reefs and marine organisms with calcium carbonate shells, with side effects reverberating throughout the ecosystem.

Scott Doney, of WHOI, explains the connection between CO2 and your favorite seafood dinner

The question is when, and where, said Dr. Doney. Using carbon emissions projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, he predicted that acidity levels in the ocean will double by mid-century, and carbonate ions could decline by half.

Carbon dioxide, if you look at it as a pollutant, is very long-lived, lasting from hundreds to thousands of years. It will also continue to grow through the mid-century, with no good indication that we’ll be able to stabilize it.  We’ve now increased atmospheric carbon dioxide to a range that hasn’t been seen since 800,000 years ago,  judging from ice cores.

-Scott Doney

In a 2008 paper, Drs. Cooley and Doney indicate that bivalves, such as scallops and oysters, would feel the effects of acidification more heavily than sea urchins or crustaceans, such as lobsters, shrimp, and crabs, due to their use of a more soluble form of calcium carbonate in their shells. The effects of acidification on fish is not known, but should be studied, Dr. Doney said.

“There’s no indication that this will destroy sea life, but it certainly will diminish and dislocate some species,” he said.

Calling for additional research into the socio-economic, as well as biological and political ramifications of ocean acidification, Drs. Doney and Cooley, with WHOI marine policy specialist Hauke Kite-Powell, are investigating the impacts on the shellfish industry in the Northeast.

The economic effects of ocean acidification will be felt locally, the scientists say. In New Bedford, the top American port for shellfish, they found:

• By 2060, a 25 % loss in shellfish populations would decrease landing revenues by $67 million a year, or $2.2 billion
• Losses in primary revenue from commercial harvests—or the money that fishermen receive for their catch—could add up to as much as $1.4 billion within 50 years
• In comparison, a 25 % decrease in the seafood employment sector contributed to a dramatic economic decline from in New Bedford from 1992 to 1999, when 20 % of residents were living below the federal poverty level

The Bigger Picture

Dr. Doney’s research also takes a look at the global picture, especially at areas of the developing world that are dependent on viable fisheries.

“As with so many aspects of environmental degradation, the Third World is often hit hardest, and is the least resilient,” he said. “We want to make the connections with fishing communities and how they can adapt.”

Acidification could be the death blow for coral reefs, which are already impacted by pollution and overfishing, Dr. Doney said, which will have an impact on coastal erosion, fish habitat, and tourism.

Regions that are impacted by acid rain and nutrient runoff might already be experiencing the effects of acidification, he added. While a connection between nitrogen loading and acidity has not been thoroughly studied, Dr. Doney warned that algal blooms from excess nitrogen release CO2, “an unfortunate synergy” that could occur on Cape Cod.

Tracy Johns in her office at the Woods Hole Research Center

It’s been a month after COP 15, the UN Climate Change conference that was supposed to give the world a new system for reducing carbon emissions.

A month to reflect, regroup, and respond to this reporter’s questions about what happened, and what didn’t, in Copenhagen.

From Woods Hole to Copenhagen

Tracy Johns is a research associate and policy advisor at the Woods Hole Research Center who focuses on the role of forests in stabilizing the world’s climate. She is an advisor to several countries on the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degredation (REDD) initiative, intended to create a carbon trading system that would adequately compensate countries that do not cut their remaining forests.

Having attended the last five COPs (Conference Of Parties), Ms. Johns said that the negotiations in Copenhagen, by comparison, were chaotic. Thousands of people from official delegations, NGO’s, and protest movements, crowded into a noisy meeting hall. It was difficult to find out where negotiations were taking place, even those related to REDD. When a delegation of African nations walked out of talks on carbon credits, she said, the conference really broke down.

With the REDD initiative dependent on the overall treaty, the process is stalled for now. Ms. Johns said she can sympathize with the African and developing nations, which are likely to feel the most deleterious effects of climate change, and yet are not responsible for the lion’s share of greenhouse gas emissions. However, she said, the stalled negotiations do not help anyone.

The Copenhagen Accord was eventually drafted by the US, China, Brazil, India, and South Africa, which other nations did not adopt. Because the UN Climate Change treaties must be adopted by consensus (remember the stalled Kyoto Protocol?) that means that there is no blueprint going forward. But, Ms. Johns said, there is still a lot that countries, especially the US, can do to reduce carbon emissions on a domestic level.

Seeing the forest for the trees

Rainforests have been dubbed the “lungs of the world” for their ability to “inhale” carbon dioxide (CO2) and “exhale” oxygen (O2), a well-known chemical exchange that sustains our every breath. In this way, trees are able to store or “sequester” large amounts of CO2, one of the critical greenhouse gases responsible for climate change.

But as trees are clear-cut for lumber or to make way for soybean plantations or cattle ranches, much of that carbon sequestered in trees is released back into the atmosphere. In addition, the trees are no longer able to inhale the atmospheric CO2 that is increasing in concentration each year. From Brazil to Gabon to Indonesia, deforestation is responsible for 12 to 18 percent of the world’s carbon emissions, said Ms. Johns.

“We will not be able to avoid the devastating effects of climate change without stopping deforestation,” she said. “Forests are a vital piece of the puzzle.”

In working out the jigsaw of economics versus the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the REDD program aims to put a value on forests that are removing CO2 from the atmosphere every day, free of charge. Not only will this give developing nations a monetary incentive to protect their remaining forests, it will encourage consumers to make responsible choices, Ms. Johns said.

A fair trade?

While her focus is on the global carbon credit market, provisions in the Waxman-Markey bill– passed last June by the House of Representatives– allow companies to purchase carbon “0ffsets” for their emissions by contibuting to reforestation efforts or rainforest conservation, both in the US and abroad, Ms. Johns said. This initiative could make the US the largest carbon trading market in the world, she added, since the European Union does not allow REDD credits.

“As the legislative process moves forward, most of the bills being discussed include pretty strong pieces that wold allow a REDD to happen,” she said. “But the numbers President Obama has announced are far below our goals.”

In her work with some of the agricultural stakeholders in Brazil, for example, Ms. Johns has found that they would gladly find alternatives to cutting down the rainforest, but their practices reflect global demand for cheap beef and soybeans.

“One of the reasons why climate change legislation is important is that we’re not paying for the cost of pollution. If we understood the costs, it’s much cheaper to consume sustainably,” she pointed out.

“It’s got to be a collaborative effort between consumers and providers. Without a change in consumption practices, there will be no incentive to change.”

What can you do?

While forests in the US Northeast enjoy a fair amount of protection, Ms. Johns said people living here can have a part in reducing deforestation. She encourages us to do a little research to learn about the origins of products, and make an effort to support industries that use sustainable practices.

• The Institute for Market Transformation to Sustainability is one website that makes it easier to find (and verify) eco-certified products.
• One common sense tip in regard to forests would be to eliminate paper-based products like paper plates from your shopping list, and in the case of necessities like toilet paper, purchasing a post-consumer recycled brand.
• Shop locally for “green” building and household products at the “G” Green Design Center in Mashpee Commons.

Results from the Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics (GLOBEC) program indicate that Arctic ice melt has made its way to the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank, said Cabell S. Davis, a WHOI senior biologist.

The influx of fresh water has lowered the natural salinity of these productive fishing grounds—and coupled with rising water temperature, the impacts will be felt across the entire ecosystem, he said.

Towing an underwater video camera from the Azores to Woods Hole, Dr. Davis captured thousands of images of copepods, a food source for cod and haddock larvae, and even right whales. Putting a computer model to work, the GLOBEC team found that decreased salinity led to an earlier spring bloom of phytoplankton, the main food source for copepods.

The result was a three-fold increase in copepod populations on Georges Bank from 1995 to 1999. Longer term data sets revealed that the water in the 1990s was more fresh and had more copepods than the 1980s.

Pointing to the 2003 haddock harvest, the best year for that fishery since 1963, Dr. Davis said the changes can initially be a good thing for fish. An earlier spring bloom of phytoplankton means that copecods have more food. Higher concentrations of copepods will allow the infant cod and haddock to grow faster, and thus have better survival rates.

However, not all copecods are created equal, Dr. Davis said. There are two types living in the western North Atlantic: one cold-water species, and one tropical species. The warm-water copepod, Centropages typicus, swims too fast for the larval fish to catch.

Already, Dr. Davis said, these copepod populations have doubled in the Mid-Atlantic Bight, off New York and New Jersey, since 1977.

“Potentially, cod and haddock larvae won’t have anything to eat,” said Dr. Davis, speaking at a Marine Biological Laboratory Ecosystems Center seminar last week.

“Even with best management practices, if the projected warming trend happens in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank, cod and haddock could be gone by 2080.”

Worst-case scenarios

Dr. Davis based his models on a medium prediction of climate change, established by an International Panel on Climate Change scenario that includes a mix of fossil fuel and renewable energy to drive the economy. If Artic melting occurs more rapidly than the predictions—which has already been the case—Dr. Davis said that the effects on fisheries could be worse.

“As more melting occurs, the nutrients on the surface sink, leading to a decrease in productivity. In addition, a climate pattern, called the North Atlantic Oscillation, affects how deep Labrador Sea water flows southward to New York, bringing in colder, low salinity water with lower nutrients,” Dr. Davis said.

Further research will be needed to study the consequences of this ecosystem shift, and other effects of climate change, on other commercially important species, including adult cod, haddock, scallops, and lobsters.